Do you think that anyone alive in the world today will live to be 150? Do you know anyone who would lay money on the table as a bet that it will happen?

Until I heard a talk by a reputable scientist last month, I thought that no level-headed professional considered it within the realm of possibility. After all, the longest recorded life span thus far is that of Jeanne Calment, the feisty French woman who reached 122. It seemed to me quite unlikely that any person now alive would beat that mark by 23 years.

But biologist Steven Austad from the University of Idaho thinks otherwise. He believes that someone now alive will live to see 150; he has also bet a colleague $500 on this outcome. You may, of course, look on this as a wager without risk since the bettor does not consider himself to be that record-breaking person.

Scientists like Austad believe that longevity breakthroughs will happen, not because of diseases being eliminated but because science will succeed in slowing down the rate of aging. He himself predicts that in the near future medications will come on the market that will make us age more slowly and thus live longer.

Another scientist of some repute, William Haseltine, goes further and sees a day when human beings can become immortal. Commenting on stem cell research, he has been quoted as saying: “Since we are a self-replacing entity, and do so reasonably well for many decades, there is no reason we can't go on forever.”

Thus some scientists take as goal the extension of human life as far as possible. In laboratories across America they are at work with fruit flies, mice, and other forms of animal life, experimenting to discover how the limits of our species can be lengthened or even eliminated.

For most of us, however, the more important question must be the desirability of life extension. Do we really want to live to 150? Or 500? Or forever, on this earth?

Speaking for myself, I am surprised and happy to have reached this new year of 2002. When you consider all the threats to human life, my arriving at 2002 is no mean feat. My instinct is to thank God, my parents, my country, members of my extended family, friends, and many others for making it possible for me to see the second year of the new millennium.

Those who dream about the fountain of longevity seem ignorant of what later life is like for large numbers of Americans right now. In this country of affluence unsurpassed in history, many lack enough money for their basic needs. Using the official federal poverty rate, the United States Census Bureau counts 5.6 million people over age 65 as poor or near-poor.

Also elders galore receive sub-par care in hospitals, nursing homes and other institutions; various forms of dementia such as Alzheimer’s threaten the brain power of many.

In the conditions of contemporary life, should anyone wish to live to be 100, much less 150? I readily grant the exceptions to my attitudes. One of my family’s old friends recently celebrated her 100th birthday and, I rejoice to say, continues to flourish. She types her own letters and stays in vital touch with family members and friends.

I am aware also of the Centenarian Study at Harvard in which other people over age 100 were shown to be thriving. As a society, however, we are not prepared for large numbers of people to live far beyond the average. We will have to make many changes in both values and societal arrangements before we are ready for a longevity revolution.

Meantime, and for the foreseeable future, I recommend my philosopher  friend Harry Moody’s “culture of finitude.” By this he means the acceptance of limits that are built into the human condition. He dismisses as nonsense the modish view that “we can be anything we want to be.” Life remains fragile, Moody emphasizes, and we must accept vulnerability and resist the dream of lasting forever.

Some scientists have the wisdom to remind us that the human body was not designed for indefinitely extended use. Jay Olshansky says that “we are living beyond our warranty period.” Our bodies are not perfect, he maintains, but “we are an incredible species and the things that go wrong are not our fault.”

I feel grateful to be around for this new year and to be quaffing a cup in celebration of its arrival. You won’t find me buying into longevity inflation any time soon. Nor will you see me swallowing the views of the so-called “anti-aging medicine” crowd. Rather, I rejoice in the gift of life right now and hope for future good years even if they do not come anywhere close to a total of 150.

Richard Griffin