“A hope is not a plan,” economist Ben Stein is fond of repeating. Baby boomers who confuse the two are in for big trouble as they approach retirement, according to this commentator.

And that means a whole lot of people may share in this trouble. Of the total United States population, nearly one-third, or 77.5 million, were born between 1946 and 1964 and thus qualify for the baby boomer title.

Everyone acknowledges that this group is characterized by wide differences in social characteristics. However, experts also see them as holding one trait in common.

Dr. Robert Butler expresses it this way: “Despite its wide-sweeping diversity, it has one striking characteristic─the lack of preparedness for its longevity.”

An important part of the boomers’ unpreparedness is financial. They have saved altogether few dollars for their later life. And “they seem unaware,” writes Butler, “of the reality of rising medical costs and health issues they face.”

Butler’s remarks could have served as introduction to a recent conference held at MIT’s AgeLab. There all of the presenters stressed the need for this huge population wave just now reaching their 60s to start planning.

Joe Coughlin, founding director of the AgeLab, has a name for the situation: he calls it the Longevity Paradox. That paradox is rooted in the startling increase in average life expectancy over the past century. For Americans in 1900, average life expectancy was under 50; now it has risen to the later 70s.

Professor Coughlin sees the issues raised by the extra years of life as far-reaching. “Longevity is now something that is an endless frontier for us on a personal level, on a public level, and on a research level,” he says.

Most people, it turns out, underestimate the number of years they may live after retirement. It can be hard to believe that you will hit 90, but it happens to more and more of us.

The question whether finances will stretch to cover the extra years should ideally form a basic part of planning. But, among family members, “there is little or no communication on financial issues,” says John Diehl of The Hartford. This insurance company, in business almost 200 years, collaborated with the AgeLab in the conference.

“Financial planning tends to be the third rail of marriage,” adds Coughlin. Getting people to talk about realistic expectations of future income and expenses looms large among the goals of retirement planners like those in the audience at MIT.

Other commentators on the panel saw two special hazards for couples looking toward the future. One is favoring their children over themselves in the allocation of available money. That means, for example, parents impoverishing themselves to put their children through college.

Ben Stein quoted a retort made by Ronald Reagan to advocates favoring posterity. “What has posterity ever done for me?” asked the then president, perhaps reverting to show biz style.

More moderately, Coughlin observes that boomers “fawn over their children as never before.”

A second hazard applies specifically to women. Most likely, they will eventually find themselves in a care giving role within their immediate or extended family. In this often difficult situation they may be tempted to quit their job outside the home.

This move would endanger their earning power and chances for advancement, says Maureen Mohyde, a corporate gerontologist on the staff of The Hartford. She strongly advices against it.

A more subtle problem comes from the lifestyle adopted by many boomers. Enjoying better health and more affluence on the whole than people in earlier generations, these Americans often suffer from exaggerated expectations.

Joe Coughlin believes they expect more of everything. As a result, “they are going to find downshifting difficult,” he says. Probably, they should plan for that eventuality earlier than they do.

After all, the retirement prospect has changed notably from what it was a generation ago. Then, American institutions, especially big industries, provided relatively generous benefits to employees who had left the workplace at age 65.

But now, with the gradual disappearance of defined benefit plans and assured health coverage, retirees are left more to their own resources. For many, pensions no longer form the bedrock of their income after they have left the workplace.

Many people now thinking of leaving their jobs face a more complicate future than they might have earlier. They will probably have more choices but the downside will be more uncertainty.

A factor that, left to themselves, many people will ignore is inflation. Relative stability now, Ben Stein warns, should not lull us into thinking that inflation will remain in check. He foresees prices doubling over the next 25 years. Included in those increases will surely be the cost of health care.

As for consumer debt, no one could be found to say a good word for boomers in this bind. “If they have yuppified themselves with their credit cards, boy are they in trouble,” says Stein.

Richard Griffin